Predictive Segmentation for Launches

Predictive Segmentation for High-Impact Beauty Product Launches Overview

New products — new shades, new formats, new bundles — succeed or fail based on whether they reach the right shoppers. Most brands launch broadly, without visibility into which customers are most likely to adopt. Cohora uses predictive signals to identify high-propensity buyers before launch day, giving brands precise targeting that accelerates adoption and improves sell-through.

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Relying on historical purchase data misses forward-looking intent.
The Problem

Launches fail when brands can’t answer key questions:

Who is most likely to buy this new shade?
Which customers prefer this format or finish?
Which routines does the product complement?
Who showed interest in early UGC or tutorials?
Which segments adopt new launches fastest?
Every launch becomes more predictable and more profitable.
Why It Matters

Launch precision increases both revenue and efficiency:

More effective pre-launch hype
Higher early adoption
Faster sell-through
Better allocation of paid media
Reduced inventory risk
Stronger alignment between creator content + segments
cohora

How Cohora Helps

Cohora identifies the customer segments most likely to respond to a launch and activates them across lifecycle, onsite, and content channels.

What Cohora Reads

Shade, undertone, and finish preferences
Ingredient sensitivities
Category interest
Routine gaps
UGC/tutorial engagement pre-launch
Propensity based on similar launch behaviors
Step bt step

How it works

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Predict high-propensity buyers using zero-party + behavior signals

Cohora builds audience models around shoppers who match the launch profile.

Create segmented pre-launch audiences

Create segmented pre-launch audiences

Deliver targeted education ahead of launch

Routines, tutorials, and UGC aligned to each segment.

Activate day-one campaigns with precision

SMS, email, and onsite experiences are tailored to each customer's preferences.

Track segment-level adoption and optimize in real-time

Every launch becomes smarter than the last.

The Outcome

Every launch becomes data-driven and customer-aligned, reducing risk and increasing conversion. Brands know exactly who will respond — before the product goes live.

Measured Lift

Proven Impact

  • 8–12% lift in launch conversion
  • Faster sell-through for new complexion or skincare formats
  • Higher early adoption from VIP and mid-funnel customers
Real Examples

How Brands Use It

  • Identify customers most likely to try a new cream-to-powder finish
  • Target shoppers with routine gaps the new product solves
  • Personalize shade-launch messaging by undertone
  • Build VIP early-access lists based on UGC engagement
KPIs

KPIs Improved

  • Launch conversion rate
  • Early-adopter percentage
  • Segment-level adoption curves
  • Revenue from predicted high-propensity buyers
The outcome

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Want your launches to reach the right customers from day one?

Learn how Cohora powers predictive segmentation for beauty brands.
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